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Will CIS billet exporters manage to start March with attractive prices? - 01 Mar 11

Outlook for CIS billet export market has become even vaguer. Forecasts on further developments are quite controversial. Whereas buyers are confident that instability in South Africa and the Middle East will pull semis quotations down, producers assure they will not make any further reductions. However, neither of them is sure, and this week’s chaos in the market confirms this fact.
Contracts in the Azov-Black Sea region have been occasional and, considering prices of recent deals, one cannot say anything about the trend. As reported previously, BMZ, having failed to sell 5,000 t of “March” billet at $640/t FOB Odessa, has finally sold it to Latvia’s Liepajas Metalurgs at $615/t DAP. Now only suppliers of Ukrainian material have been the most active, closing deals with Middle Eastern (from Turkey and Saudi Arabia in particular) and EU buyers. Consumers from North Africa and Latin America have reportedly started showing interest in CIS semis.
Situation in the Caspian region remains critical amid no demand from Iranian buyers. Suppliers from Far Eastern ports stay calm on having limited stocks of March production, waiting for market situation to improve soon. However, the downward movement is seen in this region as well.
In the Azov-Black Sea basin small lots of March casting of Ukrainian material were sold to Turkey and the Gulf countries at $605-610/t FOB at the end of last week. Moreover, contracts for Ukrainian billet have been reported at $620-625/t FOB by the end of the month.
The deals have inspired suppliers: some of them have tried to put prices up by $5/t, quoting $620-630/t FOB as an acceptable level. But the position of mills is not sufficiently firm to dictate prices from early March. Moreover depressed target markets in February have left some producers with unfilled order-books. Taking into account offers of Turkish material at $630-640/t FOB, there are no reasons for a rapid growth in domestic semis quotations. In view of the above, Russian and Ukrainian steelmakers can only expect moderate upturn in prices, in line with changes in import scrap quotations in Turkey, which only start to move up from the bottom levels.
( Source: www.metalexpert-group.com )
Mar 1, 2011 09:56
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