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Chinese scrap market getting ready for prices to start going up again – 15 Feb 11

Trade is now about to pick up again in the Chinese scrap market, and local scrap collectors look forward to raising prices further right after the New Year holidays. Steelmakers are still evaluating the situation in finished product and raw material segments. Chinese traders believe mills will return to lifting finished product prices in the second half of February, thereby enabling scrap collectors to push their prices higher too. Besides, during the holidays inventories of some mills have become critically low, so re-stocking will start soon. Besides, iron ore undersupply, which drives prices for the material up, and the steady increase in coke costs make it unlikely that scrap quotations will stay stable.
Quotations of HMS 1 in most provinces will reportedly be at RMB 3,800-3,850/t, which means $576-584/t delivered, incl. 17% VAT, at the exchange rate $1 = RMB 6.58. To fill stocks, some plants in northern China had no choice but to lift their purchase prices to the above levels even before the holidays.
Scrap collectors from other regions are only about to quote such figures. Most plants in the eastern part of the country are bidding for HMS 1 at RMB 3,650-3,700/t ($553-561/t) delivered, incl. 17% VAT. Steelmakers from the southern and central parts of China will start bidding at RMB 3,550/t ($538/t) delivered, incl. 17% VAT.
Unlike domestic market, in the import one Chinese traders are expecting some reductions from main suppliers. Japanese trading companies, in view of the latest contracts with the South Koreans, may refuse to cut their offers, hoping for support from domestic consumers. Offers from Japanese traders are now standing at $490-495/t C&F, which means $580-590/t CPT, incl. 17% import VAT and average delivery cost. Due to the lack of demand in major sales destinations, US exporters will probably have to revise their offers downwards. Scrap prices were increasing steadily during three months to go down now in the US domestic market, which will probably entail a decrease in export quotations of the material. Whereas in January Shagang bought a few lots of HMS 1&2 (80:20) at $502/t C&F ($600/t CPT), in February suppliers may give $5/t discounts.

(Source: www.metalexpert-group.com )
Feb 15, 2011 08:00
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