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CIS scrap exports: February may be quiet - 08 Feb 11

The beginning of February has been unfavorable to CIS scrap exporters. Despite an upswing of activity in the Turkish market, steelmakers still have all the price control, so even new contracts have not let suppliers raise prices. Current bids in Turkey have disabled most of Russian and Ukrainian traders, making their offers unworkable.
Seeing US and EU exporters were ready to discount, Turkish steelmakers have managed to sign 10 major contracts at prices lower than initial ones by $20-25/t. In view of US and EU quotations, traders in Black Sea ports have received bids at $470-475/t C&F, which is unacceptably low for most of them.
A few Ukrainian mills have been the exception, having closed sales of small lots of A3 scrap at $470-475/t C&F, which means $440-445/t FOB exclusive of February freight rates. Besides, many companies still do not hurry to sell, thinking deals at current prices will hardly be profitable.
Ukrainian exporters purchase the material at ports at $364-371/t CPT (A3), unchanged from a week ago. This month local steelmakers have unexpectedly supported them by pushing their purchase prices down by $12-13/t.
 Exporters from Rostov-on-Don are in a more difficult situation, with high cost of the material they purchase and low bids in export markets. Major regional traders, having the opportunity of delivering the material to local mills by railway, are bidding $362-379/t CPT (against $355-362/t CPT a week earlier), leaving behind companies specializing solely in exports. With such expenses, their offers should be at least $490/t C&F ($455-460/t FOB). However, in case Turkish mills resume their buying, a number of sellers, having cheaper material stockpiled earlier, will probably discount at least $5/t to make deals.
Now, shipment from Rostov-on-Don is impeded by adverse weather conditions and the need to use ice-breakers, which is reflected in freight cost. Besides, rumours about local steelmakers lobbying for imposing a ban on scrap shipments through the above port and moving ferrous scrap exports to Azov port make the exporters even more nervous.
Russian traders from Baltic region have not succeeded in signing new deals either, being forced to lift purchase prices amid critically low scrap arrivals to service previous contracts in time. Local companies are buying A3 scrap at $369-379/t CPT ($352/t CPT last week). The upper end of the price range reflects quotations of those exporters, who need to ship promptly, and is rather an exception. Market observers believe after the contracts are fulfilled, prices for the material in Saint-Petersburg will be revised downwards. As before, the breakeven point for Baltic traders is $505-510/t C&F ($440-445/t FOB). However, in order to maintain stable export trade, the sellers need $520/t C&F ($455/t FOB).
Metal Expert estimates exports from CIS are unlikely to become active again this month. Taking into account forecasts for US and EU domestic markets, Turkish buyers may expect deals at lower levels, which will definitely make Russian and Ukrainian suppliers uncompetitive in export market.
( Source: www.metalexper-group.com )

Feb 8, 2011 10:20
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