Billet: By controlling supply and increasing the exchange rate, billet prices followed an upward trend.
Long Products
Rebar: Rebar prices rose under the influence of supply restrictions and the increase in the ex-rate.
I-beam: The beam market was weak, but the rise in the exchange rate helped support it.
Flat Products
HRC: The imbalance between supply and demand for HRC is clearly evident; prices increased under the shelter of the rising currency rate.
HRP: The offer of Oxin HRP on IME market pushed prices downward, but the market rose under the influence of the higher exchange rate.
CRC: A shortage of supply on one hand and uncertainty about future supply, along with the rising exchange rate, disrupted the CRC market.
HDG: Despite the increase in the exchange rate, supplies from Mobarakeh and other mills stabilized HDG market.
Weekly Analysis:
In the world market: The global market is under pressure from two sides: on one hand, rising fuel prices have increased transportation and production costs; on the other, recession has reduced demand and prevented prices from rising. This trend will certainly continue as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, but even if conditions return to normal, prices will not fall, as demand will become active again.
Most economic participants have remained silent about the future, as the global economic environment is heavily influenced by political issues and the outlook for the Middle East. The global steel market is not predictable for the coming months because its key players have changed. Iran’s absence as the world’s tenth-largest steel producer has created more room in the global market for Russia and Turkey. At the same time, the lack of supply of raw materials such as pellets from Iran will increase raw material prices for China. The only somewhat predictable outlook is for gold, which has been projected to reach $6,000 by next year in the worst-case scenario—indicating continued instability and recession in global markets.
In the domestic market: Domestic demand remains weak. In the sheet market, last year’s inventory is still available, but sellers are waiting for new-year prices. Although production is not limited to Mobarakeh, it remains the market leader. The main issue is insufficient slab supply; despite recent supply, liquidity and quota constraints limited purchases. Demand may improve in coming weeks. Imported hot-rolled (around $590 CFR Anzali) and cold-rolled sheets ($660–670) could temporarily ease price pressures despite delayed delivery.
In long products, consumption is low, warehouses are stocked with high-priced rebar, and producers are trying to control supply. Higher credit sales interest rates (around 40% annually) and possible increases by the central bank signal a contractionary policy, which may shrink the economy.
Overall, the economy faces high uncertainty due to geopolitical conditions, reducing investment and increasing capital flight and unemployment. The exchange rate has become the key price driver, influenced not only by domestic factors but also by oil prices and the global dollar rate.
On the other hand, the continuation of the current situation has led to economic recession, which has already disrupted stock markets around the world; if it persists, it will spread to the global banking system. In such circumstances, nothing is predictable. History has shown that the deeper and longer a recession lasts, the more likely it is to trigger a larger war.
CBI average ex-rate: Rials 1,448,745 / 1USD
04 May, 2026
M.Chitsaz
Iran Steel News Bulletin
IFNAA.IR
IRSTEEL.COM