Billet: Billet prices trended upward due to supply shortages.
Long Products
Rebar: Supply constraints fueled a surge in demand, driving up rebar prices.
I-beam: A combination of limited supply and buyer-driven market making led to an increase in I-beam prices.
Flat Products
HRC: Recent disruptions and the suspension of offerings by Mobarakeh and other mills pushed HRC prices higher.
HRP: Limited supply helped sustain the price levels of Oxin HRP.
CRC: Supply restrictions resulted in a price hike for CRC.
HDG: Reduced supply drove up the price of HDG.
Weekly Analysis:
In the world market: The global market remains in a state of profound uncertainty, which is the worst-case scenario for economic actors; such instability causes demand to retreat and discourages investors from committing to production. It is certain that throughout these 40 days of conflict, the world has fully felt its impact. According to international economic organizations, the consequences will lead to economic recession, unemployment, and inflation for at least the next year. Consequently, a short-term ceasefire—whether for a few days or months—cannot cure the global economy's ailments, as investors will continue to wait for a definitive outcome. Once conditions stabilize, there is expected to be a massive surge in regional construction demand. Economists forecast that this will trigger a period of prosperity lasting at least five years.
In the domestic market: In Iran, several distinct factors are influencing the market:
First: Liquidity Volume: In wartime conditions, governments typically resort to increasing liquidity. This capital is primarily funneled into the military sector, followed by subsidies, with only a small portion eventually allocated to support domestic industries.
Second: Supply Constraints: Production issues at Mobarakeh Steel and Khouzestan Steel have triggered a surge in prices. It is reported that, starting today, Mobarakeh Steel will release a portion of its warehoused inventory to balance the market, and Saba Steel is expected to resume production by late week. The primary bottleneck in flat products remains the supply of slabs. While there are rumors regarding plans for slab imports for Mobarakeh Steel, the lead time—from ordering to delivery—would take at least three months. Consequently, pipe and profile manufacturers must seek imports to fill this three-month gap.
Third: Demand Trends: Rising prices, coupled with banking restrictions, are stifling demand. Over the past month, private liquidity has largely been converted into physical goods. During this period, supply volumes were extremely low, which drove prices upward. However, demand has a elasticity; if prices rise excessively, demand will inevitably decline.
For the coming week, the market is in a "wait-and-see" mode regarding the ceasefire results. Should an agreement be reached, the focus will shift to the impact of Iran’s unfrozen assets. The critical question will be the government’s next move on this new "chessboard": whether there is a cohesive plan for reconstruction and economic development.
Ultimately, two factors will determine the market's direction: the exchange rate and government policy regarding the private sector's share in the economy. History has shown that after such periods, governments often grant the private sector more freedom, which—provided the infrastructure is properly planned—could lead to the entry of foreign investors into Iran.
CBI average ex-rate: Rials 1,404,290 / 1USD
20 April, 2026
M.Chitsaz
Iran Steel News Bulletin
IFNAA.IR
IRSTEEL.COM