(Kitco News) - The gold market continues to consolidate as it gets comfortable around $5,000 an ounce, and while it still has some significant ground to cover, Friday’s solid rally is a reminder of why you don’t want to bet against the precious metal in 2026, especially ahead of the weekend.
In a continuation of the theme we have seen for more than a year now, the world remains steeped in uncertainty, and new chaos is only one social media post away. Even as gold remains volatile at these elevated price levels, it is the only safe-haven asset that is a recognized store of value and carries no third-party geopolitical risk.
The price action we have seen in recent weeks might have made investors, traders and analysts a little more cautious on gold in the near term, but only a handful have said that gold is topping out.
Despite the sharp correction at the end of January, the market continues to see major institutions mapping paths toward $6,000 and beyond. UBS has outlined a scenario that pushes prices toward $6,200 by mid-2026. BMO sees a credible bull case that takes gold near $6,500. AuAg Funds argues that $6,000 could be reached this year, albeit with sharp and sometimes violent volatility along the way. Maybe not as bullish, but ANZ Bank sees gold prices hitting $5,800 an ounce in the second quarter.
These are not momentum traders chasing headlines; they are institutions recalibrating long-term assumptions. Their targets are built on persistent central bank demand, structurally high fiscal deficits, stubborn inflation risks, and a geopolitical backdrop that refuses to normalize. Add in the growing uncertainty around U.S. monetary leadership, and it becomes clear why investors are reluctant to bet against gold.
That does not mean the path higher will be smooth, however. We have already seen how quickly leveraged positions can unwind, particularly in silver, where 20% to 30% swings are not theoretical but very real. Elevated prices invite volatility. Positioning becomes crowded, and momentum eventually becomes unsustainable.
But corrections are not the same as a top. Gold’s resilience near $5,000 suggests that the floor has once again risen. Each pullback over the past year has found buyers willing to treat weakness as an opportunity rather than an exit. That behavior reflects something deeper than speculative enthusiasm. It reflects a shift in thinking surrounding portfolio construction .
In a world where sovereign debt burdens are expanding, alliances are fragmenting, and policy credibility is routinely questioned, gold’s appeal is not about fear in the abstract. It is about insulation. It is one of the few assets that does not rely on an issuer’s promise, a government’s stability, or a counterparty’s balance sheet. That feature becomes more valuable as uncertainty prevails.
While $6,000 or $6,500 may sound ambitious, the more important question is what would reverse the forces driving this market. A sustained return to fiscal discipline, geopolitical détente, and durable monetary credibility would help. For now, those conditions remain aspirational.
Until that changes, betting aggressively against gold — especially heading into a tense weekend — remains a poor risk-reward trade.
That is it for this week. Have a great weekend.
Kitco