Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the global energy landscape has changed significantly, as the United States and Europe introduced strict sanctions on Russian energy. This led to a rapid movement away from Russian oil and gas by Europe, as countries scrambled to find alternative supplies. As Russia lost many of its main energy trade partners, it also looked elsewhere, offering oil and gas at heavily discounted prices. The tactic worked, as China and India stockpiled vast quantities of low-cost Russian energy. Moscow now aims to strengthen its ties with India, despite threats from U.S. President Trump to impose higher tariffs on any country importing crude from Russia.
In October, President Trump said he expected India to stop importing Russian oil, following the introduction of a 25 percent tariff on India as a penalty for importing Russian oil and gas in August, on top of an existing 25 percent tariff. Trump told reporters that India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi has assured him that India planned to halt the crude imports. “He’s a friend of mine, we have a great relationship … we have a great relationship – no, we were not happy with him buying oil from Russia because that let Russia continue on with this ridiculous war where they’ve lost a million and a half people,” Trump said.
When Trump introduced the new tariffs, the White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said that India’s ongoing purchases of Russian oil were funding Russia’s war with Ukraine and must stop. “India acts as a global clearinghouse for Russian oil, converting embargoed crude into high-value exports while giving Moscow the dollars it needs,” Navarro wrote in an opinion piece in the Financial Times.
However, in November, India’s imports of Russian crude were expected to hit a five-month high, at around 1.855 million bpd, compared to 1.48 million bpd in October, according to data from ship tracking agency Kpler. A trade source explained, “Russian supply is expected to be high in November as many refineries tried to fill the stocks prior to the U.S. sanctions deadline and also due to the rule for oil products production for the EU market from non-Russian oil from 2026.”
Since 2022, India, the world’s third-biggest oil importer, has become the largest purchaser of seaborne Russian crude. In 2021, before Russia invaded Ukraine, Russian oil contributed around 2.5 percent of India’s total oil imports, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. However, by 2025, this figure increased to around 50 percent of oil imports.
Despite the threats from President Trump, it seems like the trend is likely to continue. In December, Modi met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in his first visit to India since the invasion of Ukraine. At the Russia-India annual bilateral summit in New Delhi, Putin stated, “Russia is ready for uninterrupted shipments of fuel to India,” saying their ties were “resilient to external pressure”.
Putin also criticised the United States for its hypocrisy in calling for India to halt its crude imports from Russia. “The United States itself still buys nuclear fuel from us for its own nuclear power plants.” If the U.S. has the right to buy Russian fuel, India should enjoy “the same privilege,” he added. In 2023, U.S. imports of Russian enriched uranium reached a record high in more than a decade, at $1.2 billion.
Meanwhile, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters, “India, as a sovereign state, conducts foreign trade operations and purchases energy resources where it is beneficial for India, and as far as we understand, our Indian partners will continue this policy to ensure their economic interests.” Modi said in the conference that, “energy security has been a strong and important pillar of the India-Russia partnership.”
During the summit, India and Russia made several agreements on defence and economic cooperation. The two powers completed an economic cooperation programme until 2030, which states the aim of doubling trade to $100 billion a year by the end of the decade.
To continue importing Russian crude, India may have to change suppliers following the implementation of stricter sanctions on Russia’s largest oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, which together supply around 60 percent of the Russian crude imported by India. Russian companies, such as Surgutneftegaz, which have not faced such strict sanctions, are expected to step in to meet India’s oil demand. India will also likely continue buying oil from Gazprom Neft. Russia is expected to continue shipping crude to India using shadow fleets made up of older tankers. Moscow has significantly increased its use of these ships in recent months to circumvent sanctions.
Despite the broad sanctions on Russian energy and repeated threats from President Trump, it appears that India will continue to import large quantities of Russian crude at a discounted rate to support its energy sector and economy. Meanwhile, Russia’s President Putin has made it clear that Moscow is more than willing to supply India with this energy.
By Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.com