Billet: The Billet market remained unchanged due to the recession in the rebar market and the stability of the exchange rate.
Long Products
Rebar: The stagnation kept rebar price fixed, and a price reduction is not possible.
I-beam: Market-making strategies are no longer sufficient to manage speculative fluctuations. I-beam price has hit its ceiling despite consumption remaining flat.
Flat Products
HRC: 2mm thickness HRC from Mobarakeh Steel was 565,000 Rials on Saturday, rising to 573,000 Rials by Tuesday. Market speculation originating from Mobarakeh, coupled with a nearly 30% increase in the base price on the IME, disrupted the market.
HRP: The price of Oxin Co HRP was practically stable. However, the expectation of a price change for Mobarakeh HRC impacted this product; demand was not the cause.
CRC: Mobarakeh's maneuver, along with reduced supply from some other producers, drove up the price of CRC.
HDG: The expectation of improvement in HRC prices significantly impacted HDG market which is highly dependent and sensitive to the price of HRC.
Weekly Analysis:
In the world market: Global prices are downward. Billet price, as an indicator, has dropped. Steel production in China is on a downward trend and decreased by 12 percent last month. The expectation of oil prices dropping to USD 50 has made all economic actors cautious. The increase in steel production in the Persian Gulf region next year will practically make supply close to 30 percent more than demand. In total, the future outlook is not attractive.
The issue that has recently drawn the attention of analysts is the Chinese statistic manipulation; apparently, the announced economic growth of 5 percent is not correct, and 2 or 3 percent is closer to reality. This means that consumption in China is lower than the announced figures. Two months remain until the end of 2025. Demand usually rises during these two months, but a serious price improvement is not expected because Far Eastern markets lack excitement.
In the domestic market: Two events occurred this week:
1. Increase in Mobarakeh Steel's Base Prices
• First, it immediately caused a rise in the price of all sheet types.
• Second, the price of slab must rise because this new price will stimulate competition for slab purchases.
• Third, this base price is a sign of an increase in billet price. Billet exports have faced a price decline in recent weeks, to the extent that a rate of USD390 FOB has been heard. In the coming week, Esfahan Steel and Arfa, alongside other factories, have export tenders. Experience has shown that when the volume of exports increases but the price decreases, the price in the domestic market rises.
2. Ministry of Industry, Mine, and Trade 's Effort to Increase Supply
The second event was the Ministry's attempt to increase the supply of rebar and sheet on the Exchange market, which was included in a letter from the Ministry to the Consumer Protection Organization this week. Therefore, the government's policy is to increase the profit of producers through an increased exchange rate and to control the domestic price by pressuring re-rollers to increase supply.
However, the determining factors are two other elements:
1. DRI Supply: This will decrease starting in coming weeks causing billet supply to be restricted.
2. Exchange Rate: The money supply, according to Central Bank statistics has increased and according to some economists, considering the budget deficit, this figure is likely to cross 40%. Naturally, the exchange rate is estimated to pass 1,200,000 Rials in open market.
In total, there is no sign of a price decrease. The only solution proposed by some stakeholders is for the government to leave the market to its own devices. Competition will certainly not allow prices to increase. Aside from this, the government should only allow mills to export the entire chain excluding the final product. Naturally, foreign currency will return, and the market will calm down.
CBI average ex-rate for Steel Products (SANA): Rials 709,298 / 1USD
25 Nov 2025
M.Chitsaz
Iran Steel News Bulletin
IFNAA.IR
IRSTEEL.COM