Billet: Domestic steel billet remained stagnant until an increase in the exchange rate boosted both price and demand.
Long Products
Rebar: A reduction in supply and the rising exchange rate led to an improvement in rebar prices.
I-beam: Market management and increasing exchange rate drove up the price of steel beams.
Flat Products
HRC: The price of 2mm rolled sheet from Mobarakeh Steel Company was 417,000 rials on Monday, rising to 430,000 rials by Wednesday. Despite the general market slowdown, the higher exchange rate caused suppliers to hold back, which in turn pushed prices higher.
HRP: Weak demand prevented the price of this product from increasing, even with a rising exchange rate.
CRC: The rising exchange rate led to an increase in CRC prices, although demand remains weak.
HDG: The combination of higher HRC prices and a rising exchange rate caused galvanized sheet prices to go up.
Weekly Analysis:
In the world market: The global market has remained relatively stable, with only minor changes. This stability is expected to continue as there are no anticipated changes in demand until the end of the year.
The upcoming implementation of U.S. anti-dumping tariffs on steel imports from 10 countries is expected to further disrupt the steel market. News from China is also concerning. Following reports of a crisis in the Chinese auto industry due to oversupply, similar issues are now being reported for solar panel manufacturers, leading to losses, and subsequently for petrochemical producers.
The problems in the petrochemical sector will impact China's oil demand, while the situation with solar panels is a better reflection of China's consumption structure. Political changes in China have not allowed for an expansion of consumption, and if a crisis emerges, China's enormous production capacity will create problems for other countries.
Another significant development is the Chinese government's directive for insurance funds to back 1% of their capital with gold, with a goal to reach 5% within five years. As a first step, these funds must acquire $45 billion, or 750 tons, of gold. This will likely drive up the price of gold, especially as crises in the housing, steel, automotive, and petrochemical sectors are already pushing Chinese capital toward gold, which could lead to further economic stagnation.
In the domestic market: The domestic market has become so focused on political issues that it has forgotten about the problems of electricity, water, and recession. The talk of the "snapback mechanism" has driven the currency exchange rate up. At the same time, traders are closely monitoring the currency exchange hall. This mechanism could affect all aspects of life, including the internet, but its first impact will be capital flight. This will be followed by a decrease in investment, a drop in oil exports, an increase in the money supply, higher unemployment, and a deepening recession.
Economists believe that because Iran's current situation is very different from when sanctions were first imposed, the implementation of these new sanctions will deal a serious blow to the Iranian economy, especially since money transfers could become a major problem.
In any case, while the situation remains unclear, steel exports will accelerate sharply, a trend helped by the high exchange rate. If these sanctions are implemented after 30 days, the steel market will fall into a recession, but prices will not drop because costs will not allow it.
Most steel producers are looking for electricity generators. Some of these projects run on gas, which will face problems in the fall and winter.
CBI average ex-rate for Steel Products (SANA): Rials 692.370/ 1USD
31 Aug 2025
M.Chitsaz
Iran Steel News Bulletin
IFNAA.IR
IRSTEEL.COM