Billet: At the start of the week, billet price initially fell due to worries about potential pellet price drops, sparked by a Ministry of Industry, Mine, and Trade directive. However, once the directive's implementation was halted, prices returned to their previous levels. This happened even as billet suppliers faced reduced output due to power cuts.
Long Products
Rebar: Rebar market remained stable, with a slight price dip by week's end due to decreased demand.
I-beam: Beam price climbed, driven by supply management and the closure of some traders.
Flat Products
HRC: The closure of key traders and strategic supply management also led to a modest increase in hot-rolled coil prices.
HRP: A downtrend in Oxin co HRP price was observed, resulting from reduced demand.
CRC: The absence of some suppliers led to a supply shortage and an increase in CRC prices.
HDG: Price hikes for certain specialized items, coupled with limited supply, caused galvanized sheet prices to rise.
Weekly Analysis:
In the world market: Oil price is still hovering around USD 70 per barrel. With OPEC's announcement of increased production starting next month, a further rise in oil prices is unlikely. Iron ore prices have seen a slight improvement of about two dollars, moving from USD 93.3/ton CFR China ports to USD 95.70 / ton, though this increase isn't substantial. Scrap prices have remained relatively stable around USD 345/mt CFR Turkey. Billet price has't changed, staying between USD 420 - USD 435. Slab is still steady at USD 420. HRC is USD 450, CRC is USD 585, rebar is also USD 540/ton FOB Turkish ports, and FOB China ports is USD 445/ton. Price fluctuations in global markets have stayed within one to two dollars, which is entirely reasonable.
Global markets, especially in the Far East, are still grappling with the confusion caused by Trump's policies.
The global economy is overshadowed by political instability and the Middle East conflict, while Russia continues its advance in Ukraine. European nations are contemplating increasing their defense spending, which will inevitably lead to a reduction in civil and social expenditures. Last week, ArcelorMittal, the world's largest steel producer, announced its intention to withdraw from the Paris Agreement and discontinue green steel production. This signals that other European producers will likely adopt the same strategy in the near future, as they will lose their competitive edge. Indeed, European green steel producers have already lost developing country markets to Far Eastern producers. The full impact of the Ukraine and Middle East wars will become clear one or two years after their conclusion, as the geopolitical landscape will shift, leading to new political alignments. No significant changes are expected in the international steel market as long as these conditions persist.
In the domestic market: Last week, the domestic market was influenced by two main factors: first, the analysis of the outcomes of the conflict with Israel, and second, preparations for the mourning ceremonies of Imam Hussain. Consequently, demand was very cautious and driven by genuine necessity. While power outages also reduced industrial activity, there have been reports of increased oil and gas exports in recent months. If the resulting funds are repatriated, this could lead to an economic boom in the autumn. Currently, the Iranian economy has settled for the bare minimum, with all transactions based on caution. Naturally, both supply and demand volumes are low, even though there's significant hidden demand in the market, with everyone awaiting the results of political actions and their regional impact. This trend is unlikely to last long, and conditions are very likely to change. The government has significantly contributed to market stability by managing the exchange rate. If this trend continues, it will make confidence in the steel market for both producers and consumers.
CBI average ex-rate for Steel Products (SANA): Rials 688,435/ 1USD
07 July 2025
M.Chitsaz
Iran Steel News Bulletin
IFNAA.IR
IRSTEEL.COM