While Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine remains in the spotlight, President Vladimir Putin is quietly laying the groundwork for a potential conflict with NATO, reports suggest.
Russia is expanding its troop presence along stretches of its border with the West, ramping up its military spending at a record pace, and intensifying covert operations against the West.
NATO must "expect the unexpected" and prepare for a Russian attack, Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer, the alliance's military committee chief, said in Brussels last January.
Meanwhile, intelligence and military officials have warned in recent weeks that NATO member states must be ready for a potential conflict with Russia.
Newsweek has contacted the Kremlin for comment by email.
Russian Military Moves
Russia is expanding its military presence along its borders with Finland and Norway in preparation for a potential face off with the military alliance, the Wall Street Journal reported Monday.
The Kremlin is planning to establish a new army headquarters in the Russian city of Petrozavodsk, about 100 miles east of the Finnish border, which will oversee tens of thousands of troops over the next several years. Many of these troops will be deployed to the area after the Ukraine war ends.
At the same time, Russia is ramping up military recruitment and accelerating weapons production.
Russian military experts told the newspaper that the buildup along the Finnish border is likely part of President Vladimir Putin's broader preparations for a possible conflict with NATO.
"When the troops are back [from Ukraine], they will be looking over the border at a country they consider an adversary," said Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Center for the Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a Moscow-based defense think tank. "The logic of the last decade shows we're expecting some conflict with NATO."
There are indications that Russia is starting to hold back recently produced equipment from deployment to Ukraine, and is instead reallocating some personnel to other regions, including the Baltics and Nordics, Edward Arnold, senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank, told Newsweek.
"However, this activity is far from a build-up," Arnold said. "Many of the units usually stationed in the north have become combat ineffective while fighting in Ukraine, so this Russian activity is rebalancing and recapitalising lost forces. It does therefore indicate that Russia is already starting to look 'beyond Ukraine'."
German, Lithuanian, and Danish Intelligence Warnings
Germany's intelligence community has sounded the alarm that Russia's ambitions go beyond Ukraine. A report by Germany's Federal Intelligence Service (BND) in March warned that Putin is preparing for a conflict with NATO.
According to the BND assessment, Russia could be fully ready for a "large-scale conventional war" by 2030.
"Russia sees itself in a systemic conflict with the West and is prepared to implement its imperialistic goals through military force, even beyond Ukraine," the report said.
Meanwhile, Lithuania's intelligence service, VSD, assessed that while Moscow may not yet be ready to launch a full-scale attack on the alliance, it may attempt to "test NATO" with a limited military operation against one or more member states to gauge how seriously the bloc will uphold its collective defense obligations.
An attack by Russia on any NATO member would trigger Article 5 of the alliance's charter, which states that a strike on one member state would be met with a collective response.
The Danish Defense Intelligence Service (DDIS) also warned in February that Russia could be ready to wage a "large-scale war" in Europe within the next five years. While "there is currently no threat of a regular military attack on the Kingdom," it is likely that the "military threat from Russia will increase over the coming years," it said.
Ramped Up Military Spending
Russia's military spending is increasing at a record pace, with expenditures expected to reach around 120 billion euros in 2025—more than 6 percent of the country's GDP. That's compared to 3.6 percent prior to the war.
The Russian army is also set to expand to 1.5 million troops, while the volume of weapons and equipment stationed along the NATO border is expected to grow by 30–50 percent, according to BILD's Russia edition.
According to a Military Balance report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies released February, Russia's military expenditure has surpassed Europe.
Spying and Sabotage Activities
The West has sounded the alarm over increased Russian military activity near key undersea communication cables. There are growing fears among NATO members that Putin could target underwater cables and critical infrastructure that are vital to global communication systems.
In one example, a Russian cargo vessel loitered above undersea communication cables in the Pacific for weeks, raising concerns over potential Russian sabotage. Severing key undersea lines could cripple communications and disrupt global economies — a move that would serve Russian interests in any future war with NATO.
This month, Russia's ambassador to the United Kingdom, Andrei Kelin, also refused to deny media reports that Russia is tracking the nation's nuclear submarines in the seas around Britain.
Russia is waging an escalating and violent campaign of sabotage and subversion against European and U.S. targets in Europe, the Center for Strategic and International Studies said in a report published in March.
The report noted that the number of Russian attacks in Europe nearly tripled between 2023 and 2024, after already quadrupling between 2022 and 2023.
"The data indicate that Russia poses a serious threat to the United States and Europe and that the Russian government, including President Vladimir Putin, cannot be trusted," the report said.
How is NATO Responding?
As NATO member states express growing concerns about Europe's collective security, U.S. President Donald Trump has called on European nations to substantially increase their defense spending. The European Commission proposed in March to free up about 800 billion euros ($867 billion) in funding to put toward additional defense spending.
Meanwhile, NATO member state Lithuania has fortified a bridge near its border with Russia with anti-tank concrete pyramids, known as "dragon's teeth." The structures were first used during World War II and impede the advances of tanks and mechanized infantry.
It followed a similar announcement from neighbor Latvia.
The Baltic States "are determined to ensure what happened to Ukraine will not happen to them," Roger Hilton, defense research fellow at the Slovakia-based think tank GLOBSEC, previously told Newsweek.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned Putin in March of a "devastating" response should Moscow attack any of the alliance's members. "If anyone were to miscalculate and think they can get away with an attack on Poland or any other ally, they will be met with the full force of this fierce alliance. Our reaction will be devastating. This must be clear to Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and anyone else who wants to attack us," Rutte said.
Newsweek