As relations between the U.S. and China deteriorate, the European Union risks becoming caught in the crosshairs.
And any attempt by President Donald Trump to force the EU to choose between the two countries is unlikely to succeed, experts told Newsweek.
Trump initially went for a wide-ranging tariff hike on all trading partners, with China hit hardest. He would pause the majority of what he called "reciprocal" tariffs, including the 20 percent targeting the EU, while still maintaining the baseline 10 percent on all countries. But with China, he would engage in tit-for-tat rises with President Xi Jinping, which have culminated to 245 percent on most Chinese goods.
While the tariff increases have appeared to have paused for now, the U.S. is hitting at China via its other trading partners.
But Kyle Haynes, assistant professor at Purdue University's department of political science told Newsweek that while the Trump administration was "trying to force Europe to choose between the U.S. and China," he didn't expect Europe to bite.
Still, as Europe ponders the reliability of Elon Musk's broadband company Starlink, Brendan Carr, chair of the Federal Communications Commission, told the Financial Times that European allies need to choose between U.S. and Chinese satellite internet technology.
"If you're concerned about Starlink, just wait for the CCP's [Chinese Communist Party] then you'll be really worried," he said.
He added that Europe was "caught" between Washington and Beijing and there could be a "great divide" between those who align with China and those who do not.
"If Europe has its own satellite constellation then great, I think the more the better. But more broadly, I think Europe is caught a little bit between the U.S. and China. And it's sort of time for choosing," he said.
'This Gives Europe More Leverage'
The Wall Street Journal recently reported that Washington would be using the tariff negotiations with more than 70 countries to limit their trade with China.
"EU trade with China is nearly as high as its trade with the U.S, and Trump's backtracking on tariffs last week will probably signal to European leaders that he doesn't have the stomach for a truly global trade war," Kyle Haynes said. "Europe has the advantage of being in a sort of 'pivotal' position here. It currently has better relations with both China and the U.S. than the U.S. and China do with each other.
"This gives Europe more leverage in exploiting the ongoing U.S.-China trade war, or at least allowing it to better look after its own trading interests while Washington and Beijing fight their own war of attrition."
But Kyle Haynes believes the "EU knows Trump isn't a trustworthy negotiating partner" and will try to "minimize the damage Trump can do to trans-Atlantic relations while waiting for him to leave office."
"Burning bridges with Xi, however, might have more long-lasting implications for Europe given the success he's already had in consolidating power in China. Europe is highly interdependent with both the U.S. and China, and European leaders rightly see this entire dispute as a purposeful choice of Trump's, not Xi's.
"I would expect Europe to refuse to choose as Trump is demanding. Trump might then follow through with some of his threats. But his behavior to date suggests a willingness to backtrack quickly when the disastrous economic consequences become clear."
'Foolish for Any European to Sign'
Rosemary Foot, professor and senior research fellow at the University of Oxford's Department of Politics and International Relations, told Newsweek it was "difficult to be sure about anything these days given the uncertainties and whimsical nature of U.S. policy making."
She added that the notion that Europe would be forced to choose between the two countries "doesn't allow much room for the idea of European Union agency or any recognition of its major significance as a commercial bloc."
She added: "With U.S. positions changing almost daily it would be foolish for any European to sign up to such a polarized position on China-U.S. trade relations."
While it is unlikely that the U.S. will drive a wedge between China and the EU, Max Bergmann, director of the Europe, Russia and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) told CNBC he thought it was unlikely that the EU and China would be "uniting against the U.S."
"The potential for EU and China economic alignment is limited as both are export-driven economies and are therefore fierce competitors, especially in the automotive and clean tech sectors," Bergmann said.
The EU and China have had a historically turbulent trade relationship, marked by mutual investigations and retaliatory measures. The EU has for instance accused China of unfair subsidies in sectors like electric vehicles and steel, leading to its own imposition of tariffs on EVs.
Meanwhile, U.S. tariffs are also igniting concern in Europe that China may redirect trade to the EU, driving prices down and making it difficult for the bloc's manufacturers to compete.
"We cannot absorb global overcapacity nor will we accept dumping on our market," Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission said as Trump's tariffs went into effect.
newsweek