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Iran Steel Market Trend in Week 43rd , 2023

Iran Steel Market Trend in Week 43rd   , 2023

Billet

Billet price went down due to downward trend of demand from USD 549/mt to USD 541/mt ex-work including VAT. The main reason was IME pressure on prices and its restricting policies.


Long Products
IME pressure to lower prices forced rebar market to decline from USD 646/mt to USD 637/mt ex-work including VAT.

Market stagnation and the negative sentiment caused I-beam price to fall by USD 8/mt to USD 693/mt by end of the week.
 
Flat Products
Considering that HRC price has reached its bottom, it faced resistance and there was a slight improvement in the market. HRC 2 mm thickness ex-work Mobarakeh was USD 990/mt by beginning of the week, which reached USD 1009 /mt by Wednesday.

HRP price has reached the bottom and very weak demand does not allow it to react. Oxin co HRP price changed from USD 844/mt to USD 843/mt.

Offering imported cargoes along with its weak demand caused the downward trend in CRC price during last week in Iran domestic market from USD 1150/mt to USD 1142/mt by end of the week.

HDG market fluctuated with ex-rate changes in free market but its demand remained weak. After some ups and downs finally it was changed from USD 1144/mt to USD 1149/mt by end of the week.

 

Weekly Analysis:

 In the world market:

Oil price has returned to below USD90/barrel, lifting of sanctions and the export of Venezuelan oil by the US does not allow the price of oil to rise above USD100. Scrap price recently has dropped by USD20/mt and billet by USD10/mt, HRC and slab markets were also weak. In the current situation, all markets are under the influence of two wars in Ukraine and Gaza, and are in a waiting state, especially the Gaza issue, which has kept all economic activists in a state of patience and waiting, especially the ambitious plans of the Persian Gulf region, which have been stopped, and the Turkish economy, which is between the Arabs and Israel. The current volatile and shaky conditions have scared demand. Indeed, after the end of these wars, markets will be very active, but expansion of the conflict, especially in the Persian Gulf, can end in the destruction of everything.

 As long as this trend continues, we should expect a drop in prices because the Russians need to export steel, the demand in China is weak, and the Middle East remains undecided. Therefore, the policy of patience prevails in the main markets.

 

In the domestic market:

The domestic market has accepted the current exchange rate because it sees the government's pressure. The market does not believe it, but since it is an election year, the government has limited the circulation of money by creating stagnation and suppressing demand.

The issue of restricting the supply of DRI with the warning of gas cut to some steel mills from December is an issue that strengthens the involvement of IME in pricing..

In order to control prices, the government applies quotas on the purchase of pellets, DRI, and billet. Last week, we saw supply restriction of pellets to traders and the increase of its price in the market. This trend will affect rebar supply in the future, but it is not clear that it will raise its price because billet price and its demand in the world market is decreasing.

Considering the government's interventions, it is unlikely that the price of billet will return to around USD457/mt. Slab and flat products market also has more chaotic conditions because their prices have reached the bottom in the domestic market, and on the other hand, the trend of demand and its price in the global market is decreasing.

The government is trying to lower gas price before problems occur. For this reason, it insists on reducing the price and increasing the supply. The factor that can affect the government's policy is the Gaza war. The continuation of the war will mean the continuation of the downward trend of the price, but its end will not necessarily increase the price, because demand level must also improve


CBI average ex-rate for Steel Products (SANA): Rials 371,761 / 1USD
30 Oct 2023
M.Chitsaz
Iran Steel News Bulletin
IFNAA.IR
IRSTEEL.COM

Oct 30, 2023 15:28
Number of visit : 333

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